Sports Thoughts

Philadelphia (Wheeler)/Atlanta (Elder) Over 8.5 (-112) (0.42-0.375)

Miami (E. Perez) +110 (0.3-0.33)

Added 5:30 PM:

Chi. Cubs (Rea)/LA Dodgers (Sasaki) Over 9.5 (-103) (0.309-0.3)

Detroit (Flaherty)/Cincinnati (Singer) Over 9.5 (-103) (0.309-0.3)

• Will just write a little about Philly/Atlanta – Philly losing streak now stands at 10, though they’ve clearly played better and with some urgency the last few nights. Tonight they get Wheeler back about 8 months after thoracic outlet surgery, and it’s hard to imagine that he’ll be fully back in game shape. His minor league starts were a mixed bag, and his velo was topping out at 93 just two weeks ago (even Wheeler expressed that he’s not where he wants to be quite yet). He apparently touched 95 in his last rehab start, but a tough task in front of him tonight. I’m a fan of fading (either side/total) strong pitchers coming off an IL stint, and this certainly applies. On the other side, Elder has been rolling early behind a pitch mix change (cutting sinker usage in half, adding a cutter he can throw to lefties) that has slashed his hard hit rate. I do think he’ll come back to earth though, as many metrics (K:BB rate, velo, chase rate, etc.) are similar. His 0.6 HR/9, .237 BABIP, and 81.6% LOB will regress as teams get used to his new mix.