Sports Thoughts

Detroit -1 (Skubal) -131.53 (0.39458-0.3)

Baltimore (Kremer) +121 (0.3-0.363)

Chi. White Sox (Fedde) +140 (0.3-0.42)

• A common theme in a couple of these today – in colder weather I will severely downgrade pitchers with questionable control and take their ground ball tendencies into account less. Both apply for Brayan Bello, whose career has displayed brief glimpses of dominance but has more often been weighed down by inconsistency (and sometimes, blow-ups on the mound). He had a career best season LY with a 3.35 ERA, but he was buoyed by a BABIP (.268) 40 points less than his career norms. Metrics had him in that 4.2-4.3 area that they typical have him. He’s been a mess to start this year, with a super high GB rate (near 60%) being the only positive. Hes been brutal to begin the year with velo down nearly 2 MPH and a K:BB at 9:9 in 14.2 IP. His GB tendencies means he can sometimes overcome it, but it’s too much of a tightrope walk and I hate control-averse pitchers on cold days where baserunners can sometimes be at a premium. On the other side, Skubal has been himself – the K rate is down slightly early, but nothing to worry about with everything else pointing to him being elite again.

• Kremer was a steady innings eater (and has been for a while LY with a 4.19 (estimators around 4) and pretty average metrics across the board. He was fairly sharp in his first start of the year with 9 K over 5 IP, but was haunted by 3 HR (sometimes a problem with Kremer) in giving up 4 R (2 ER). Less worried about HR today on a cold Cleveland day against a weak line-up. Gavin Williams another guy I’m downgrading on a cold day. Hes been dominant so far with GB rate up, velo up a tick, and 29 K in 22.2 IP. The downside – an ugly 16 BB that has prevented him from going deep despite the dominance (6+ IP in just 1 of 4 starts). Hes also running lucky with a .171 BABIP and 91.9% LOB in the early going. Baltimore would do well to be patient here – I’ll take the better offense who should see some free passes on a cold day.

• Fedde did a one year stint in the KBO in 2023 to try to revive his career, and it worked. He returned in 2024 with a 3.3 ERA in 177.1 IP (estimators just under 4 ERA). He posted 7.82 K/9, 2.64 BB, 1.02 HR. Basically numbers you love to see out an innings eating #3 or 4. It all collapsed last year as one the worst regulars in the league – he bounced around 3 teams and had an ERA of five and a half with 5.3 K/9, 4.28 BB, 1.21 HR. The truth is probably somewhere in between. He’s been better in the early going this year, with just 3 BB in 16 IP – lowering that walk rate back to 2024 levels in key for him getting back to form. The adjustments has been simple – more sweepers/change-ups (his best pitches in a bad 2025), and fewer cutters/sinkers (his worst). This has resulted in opposing hitters swinging at 29.9% of his pitches out of the zone thus far, up 5.1% from last year. As long as he keeps that BB rate in check, hes a serviceable #4 type of guy. Severino is a mystery – the velo is up and he has 24 K in 19.1 IP. The control, however, is out of control with 16 BB. His out of zone % this far is 54.2% – he has been under 50% in each of the last four years, and his out of zone swing% is all at its lowest rate of that time frame. So, the stuff could actually be improved, but the control is far worse so far and he’s not fooling guys out of the zone. Severino hasn’t had control problems often in his career, but his worst BB years have coincided with his worst seasons overall. Severino also was outspoken about his dislike of pitching at home with the A’s LY, and he was shaky in his first home start last time out vs. Texas (6 IP, 6 H, 4 ER (2 HR), 3 BB, 7 K).