Sports Thoughts

St. Louis (McGreevy)/Washington (Mikolas) Over 8.5 (+100) (0.4-0.4)

LA Angels (Detmers) +113 (0.3-0.339)

Added 9 AM:

San Diego (M. King)/Pittsburgh (Keller) Under 4 (-115) (1st 5 Inn) (0.345-0.3)

Kansas City (Ragans)/Cleveland (Cantillo) Under 3.5 (+105) (1st 5 Inn) (0.3-0.315)

Milwaukee (Drohan)/Boston (S. Gray) Under 4 (-115) (1st 5 Inn) (0.345-0.3)

• The weather isn’t ideal in this one (52 degrees), but if that’s what is holding this total lower, I don’t agree with it. McGreevy was a pedestrian starter LY (4.42 ERA – metrics agreed) with a low walk rate and average HR rate. However, he is hittable and K’ed merely 5.5 per 9 in 2025. He is off to a solid start this year: 10.2 IP, 7 H, 3 ER, 2 BB, and 9 K in two starts against Tampa and Detroit. That said, a peek behind the curtain isn’t encouraging. His velocity is down 1.5 (91.3) – a concern shared by the team as they and McGreevy have said they will be working on his hip movement between starts in hopes of getting that velo back. His swinging strike pct% also stands at a measly 5.4% in the early going: he’s not fooling anyone. Miles Mikolas has been more obviously poor. He barely saw any time in the majors until his late 20s, and he thrived from 2018 to 2022-23 as a control guy who induced soft contact. Over the past few years, slowly declining velocity has coincided with slowly falling K rate and slowly rising HR rates. He posted a 4.84 ERA LY with a career low 5.76 K/9 and a career worst 1.67 HR/9. He has been completely torched so far @CHC/LAD with 21 baserunners and 15 ER allowed in just 9.1 innings. He gets an easier offense to deal with here, but there is no reason to have confidence in him at the moment. Both bullpens have also been poor in this series. Went slightly larger here since it’s my favorite of the day.

• Holmes is a decent starter for Atlanta (who’s main weakness is walking too many), but rolling with an Angels team playing decent in the early going with a pitcher in Detmers that has the potential to make “the leap.” His velocity is predictably down after he appeared only in relief LY, but it is in line with 2024 when he was a starter. He has slowly whittled away at a poor walk rate over the years to the point that it appears nearly average at this point, which is fine given he is strong else where. Other metrics (Stuff+, location+, and pitching+) also like what they see from Detmers in the early going – taking the + money in what I see as a toss-up.
• Added a trio of weather-assisted first 5 unders, some quick notes on each.
• Keller has been one of the leagues more dependable innings eaters the L3Y with 548.2 IP. His K rate is gradually falling but he has otherwise been remarkably identical in every other way with respectable BB/K rates and ERAs of 4.21, 4.25, and 4.19 (with the other metrics agreeing each year). He gets a west coast team today playing at 12:35 EST, in cold weather, with the wind drifting in. Something tells me SD will be fine with a quick game (and a few I’ll-advised early count hacks) that gets them back home to start a week-long homestand tomorrow. King was quietly near-elite from ‘22-24 with ERA under 3 each year thanks to strikeout stuff and an aversion to homers. The homers sky rocketed LY to 1.47/9 (he had never been over 1 in a full year) despite everything else remaining the same. He kicked his way to a 3.44 ERA LY (metrics had low 4s), but even if he gives up some hard fly balls like LY, it’s a cold day in a big park against a lineup w/o a ton of power punch.
• Ragans has elite K rates to pair with decent BB/HR rates, though he tends to underperform vs. his metrics, pointing to some mistakes. He tends to struggle with injuries as well. He had a 4.67 ERA LY in 61.1 IP, but metrics pointed to an ace derailed by a .354 BABIP and a 64% LOB. His velocity/spin rates were down in a bad opener at Atlanta, but he rebounded with a dominant outing vs. MIN. Cantillo was great LY despite a slightly elevated walk rate. His 92 MPH fastball/slow change combo plays thanks to elite arm extension and an unusually high, overhead arm angle that hitters don’t see every day.
• Drohan is a 27 YO making his MLB debut after a long minors trek where gradually reduced his ghastly walk rate (as high six per nine early on) to a more acceptable low 3s LY in AAA. Improved stuff and K rates have come along with that, and he K’ed 12 per 9 in 47.2 AAA innings LY. And if you like revenge angles, Milwaukee picked up Drohan in a trade with Boston just two months ago. I like this one with dependable Gray on the other side combined with another chilly day with the wind blowing in. Even in a win yesterday, Boston’s offense still looks stuck in the mud early on.

Other leans I’ll look at tomorrow: SD/Pittsburgh 1st 5 under, KC/CLE 1st 5 under, Milwaukee, Milwaukee/Boston 1st 5 under, Baltimore/CWS under, Arizona.

Other notes:

• A’s/Yanks is an interesting one. Severino has had a fascinating career – an emerging young ace derailed by injuries to the point he barely pitched for three years. A triumphant return in 2022 only to become one of the worst starters in baseball 2023 before moving on to two steady seasons for the Mets and As. Despite largely holding onto strong velocity throughout his career, he has lost his K rate (just under 7 LY, though his velocity is back up to 97 early on this year) while his other metrics have remained the same. Of note, he hated pitching at home in Sacramento LY – not because the park is small (he impressively gave up only 0.89 HR/9 LY), but because there is no energy in the park and it feels “like Spring Training.” He had a 6 ERA at home and a 3 ERA on the road LY. Severino has struggled in the early going and has 8 BB in 8.1 IP (tying a career high last time out with 5 @ATL) – he has never had control problems in the past, so worth keeping an eye on. On the other side, Warren was below average last season thanks to shaky control – he’s been OK so far against the lesser offenses of Miami and SF. Cold day in NY as well – easy pass but interested to see what comes of Severino.

• Zona’s Ryne Nelson looked prime for a jump after a strong 2025 – 3.39 ERA (metrics had high 3s thanks to a luckier .252 BABIP). He paired an average K rate with solid walk, hard hit, and HR rates. He was electric in the spring sporting a velocity bump, but he has had a bizarre start. In 9.1 IP against LAD and ATL – he has allowed 11 baserunners (5 hits (4 HR) and 6 walks) – all 11 have scored giving him a 0% LOB, a .049 BABIP, and a 5.79 ERA (6 of the 11 runs were earned). I believe in Nelson, but the uncharacteristic walks are an early concern, and not running to bet against the Mets who have reeled off four in a row.

• In Coors, Cristian Javier and Michael Lorenzen might have had the two worst starts of any pitcher not named Mikolas, but there’s a 15 MPH wind blowing in here, so not sure I can get there on the over. The Colorado bullpen is also off to a surprising start, ranking 5th in xFIP in the early going.