Sports Thoughts

St. Louis (McGreevy)/Washington (Mikolas) Over 8.5 (+100) (0.4-0.4)

LA Angels (Detmers) +113 (0.3-0.339)

• The weather isn’t ideal in this one (52 degrees), but if that’s what is holding this total lower, I don’t agree with it. McGreevy was a pedestrian starter LY (4.42 ERA – metrics agreed) with a low walk rate and average HR rate. However, he is hittable and K’ed merely 5.5 per 9 in 2025. He is off to a solid start this year: 10.2 IP, 7 H, 3 ER, 2 BB, and 9 K in two starts against Tampa and Detroit. That said, a peek behind the curtain isn’t encouraging. His velocity is down 1.5 (91.3) – a concern shared by the team as they and McGreevy have said they will be working on his hip movement between starts in hopes of getting that velo back. His swinging strike pct% also stands at a measly 5.4% in the early going: he’s not fooling anyone. Miles Mikolas has been more obviously poor. He barely saw any time in the majors until his late 20s, and he thrived from 2018 to 2022-23 as a control guy who induced soft contact. Over the past few years, slowly declining velocity has coincided with slowly falling K rate and slowly rising HR rates. He posted a 4.84 ERA LY with a career low 5.76 K/9 and a career worst 1.67 HR/9. He has been completely torched so far @CHC/LAD with 21 baserunners and 15 ER allowed in just 9.1 innings. He gets an easier offense to deal with here, but there is no reason to have confidence in him at the moment. Both bullpens have also been poor in this series. Went slightly larger here since it’s my favorite of the day.

• Holmes is a decent starter for Atlanta (who’s main weakness is walking too many), but rolling with an Angels team playing decent in the early going with a pitcher in Detmers that has the potential to make “the leap.” His velocity is predictably down after he appeared only in relief LY, but it is in line with 2024 when he was a starter. He has slowly whittled away at a poor walk rate over the years to the point that it appears nearly average at this point, which is fine given he is strong else where. Other metrics (Stuff+, location+, and pitching+) also like what they see from Detmers in the early going – taking the + money in what I see as a toss-up.

Other leans I’ll look at tomorrow: SD/Pittsburgh 1st 5 under, KC/CLE 1st 5 under, Milwaukee, Milwaukee/Boston 1st 5 under, Baltimore/CWS under, Arizona.

Other notes:

• A’s/Yanks is an interesting one. Severino has had a fascinating career – an emerging young ace derailed by injuries to the point he barely pitched for three years. A triumphant return in 2022 only to become one of the worst starters in baseball 2023 before moving on to two steady seasons for the Mets and As. Despite largely holding onto strong velocity throughout his career, he has lost his K rate (just under 7 LY, though his velocity is back up to 97 early on this year) while his other metrics have remained the same. Of note, he hated pitching at home in Sacramento LY – not because the park is small (he impressively gave up only 0.89 HR/9 LY), but because there is no energy in the park and it feels “like Spring Training.” He had a 6 ERA at home and a 3 ERA on the road LY. Severino has struggled in the early going and has 8 BB in 8.1 IP (tying a career high last time out with 5 @ATL) – he has never had control problems in the past, so worth keeping an eye on. On the other side, Warren was below average last season thanks to shaky control – he’s been OK so far against the lesser offenses of Miami and SF. Cold day in NY as well – easy pass but interested to see what comes of Severino.

• Zona’s Ryne Nelson looked prime for a jump after a strong 2025 – 3.39 ERA (metrics had high 3s thanks to a luckier .252 BABIP). He paired an average K rate with solid walk, hard hit, and HR rates. He was electric in the spring sporting a velocity bump, but he has had a bizarre start. In 9.1 IP against LAD and ATL – he has allowed 11 baserunners (5 hits (4 HR) and 6 walks) – all 11 have scored giving him a 0% LOB, a .049 BABIP, and a 5.79 ERA (6 of the 11 runs were earned). I believe in Nelson, but the uncharacteristic walks are an early concern, and not running to bet against the Mets who have reeled off four in a row.

• In Coors, Cristian Javier and Michael Lorenzen might have had the two worst starts of any pitcher not named Mikolas, but there’s a 15 MPH wind blowing in here, so not sure I can get there on the over. The Colorado bullpen is also off to a surprising start, ranking 5th in xFIP in the early going.

More notes tomorrow