Sports Thoughts

Chi. Cubs (Assad)/Tampa Bay (Englert) Over 8 (-115) (0.345-0.3)

Milwaukee (Misiorowski)/Boston (Crochet) Under 3.5 (-122) (1st 5 Inn) (0.366-0.3)

Detroit (Skubal)/Minnesota (T. Bradley) Under 3.5 (-130) (1st 5 Inn) (0.39-0.3)

San Diego (Pivetta)/Pittsburgh (Skenes) Under 3 (+100) (1st 5 Inn) (0.3-0.3)

Quick one today – all of the 1st 5 Innings unders are basically riding elite/above-average arms in combination with cold weather (all three games are going to be around 40 degrees at first pitch).

• Assad has been a solid call-up option for the Cubs in the past, and actually has a 3.43 career ERA in 331 innings. The metric aren’t as kind, calling for a career ERA mostly in the mid-4s, but he has outperformed his metrics every year, so I will give him some credit for simply being able to out-pitch his metrics as a soft contact artist. Assad has had slightly better luck as a reliever, with an career ERA a half run lower than when he is starting. Tampa Bay has to scramble a bit in this one after slated starter Drew Rasmussen was scratched due to the birth of his second child. They will trot what is on paper one of their weaker BP options in Mason Englert as today’s opener – Tampa will have to unexpectedly patch this game together and that’s where I think this total is a touch too low.

Hopefully more write-ups for tomorrow’s slate…