Sports Thoughts

Miami (Junk) -126 (0.378-0.3)

Milwaukee (Woodruff) -115 (0.345-0.3)

St. Louis (Pallante)/Washington (Z. Littell) Over 8 (-105) (0.315-0.3)

LA Dodgers (Wrobleski)/Toronto (Scherzer) Over 8.5 (-122) (0.366-0.3)

Kansas City (Wacha)/Cleveland (Bibee) Under 4 (-115) (1st 5 Inn) (0.345-0.3)

Detroit (Mize)/Minnesota (J. Ryan) Under 3.5 (+105) (1st 5 Inn) (0.315-0.3)

Philadelphia (Painter)/San Francisco (Houser) Under 4.5 (-115) (1st 5 Inn) (0.345-0.3)

• Janson Junk is the one of the league’s biggest purveyors of not throwing junk – he walked just 1.06/9 LY in 110 IP. He pitched mostly to contact (6.3 K/9), but largely kept the ball in the park (despite some ugly hard hit numbers) and ended up with a slightly unlucky 4.17 ERA on the year (63.6% LOB – league AVG is 72.3%). He showed up this year with his FB velocity up two ticks, and boasted a 13% SwStr in Spring and 10% in the opener. If he can get some more punch outs while keeping the walks low, then Junk could be in for a nice year. On the other side, Brandon Williamson has his believers, but he has barely pitched over the L2Y due to injury. He was mediocre in his MLB debut in 2023 – 7.54 K/9, 3.00 BB/9, 1.38 HR/9, 4.46 ERA (metrics agreed with his numbers). He was decent enough in spring but was rocked in his opening start against Pittsburgh (4.2 IP, 6 H, 6 R (3 HR), 2 BB, 3 K). He was heavy fly ball/line drive in this start, and I can’t trust him right now after basically two years away from pitching. Miami’s offense also enters this series with hot bats after a high scoring series in the Bronx.

• Rolling with a hot Milwaukee team – Woodruff was a great/not quite elite starter from ’19-’22, but has logged only 131.2 IP over the last three injury-riddled seasons. When he has pitched, however, he has been as good as ever. Between LY and the start of this season, his FB velo is down to 93 (96.5 at his peak powers ~5 years ago), but he K’ed 11.55/9 and walked just 1.95/9 in 64.2 IP LY. His fly balls are on the rise as his velocity slows, so I wouldn’t be shocked to see him give up more HRs this year, but if the K/BB stays elite, he’ll be just fine. Bello walked a tight rope LY – he managed a 3.35 LY (advanced metrics had him the low-mid 4s) despite just 6.7 K/9 and 3.19 BB/9. He ran a lucky .268 BABIP (.306 career) despite a ground ball lean. He was knocked around by the Astros in his first starts, allowing 5 ER in 4.2 IP, allowing 11 baserunners with just 2 K. To top it off, Boston is off to a brutal 2-7 start to the year with the fewest runs in the AL (30).

• STL/WAS total simply seems too low to me – the weather isn’t ideal (60 degrees with 8 MPH winds LF-RF), but neither pitcher inspires much in this one. Andre Pallante gets by with an extreme GB rate (59.1% LY), but his ugly 6.14 K/9 and 3.43 BB/9 rates yielded a 5.31 ERA (metrics in low-mid 4s). He had a nice start in 5 SO IP against the Mets, but he had just 3 K/3 BB and the repertoire appears unchanged, so I’m expecting another mediocre year. Littell is pedestrian on the other side as well – similar pitch-to-contact Ks rates like Pallante. He walks very few, but trades that for hard hit balls and HR (1.74 HR/9 LY, 1.48/9 career). The Washington bullpen is also a random collection that, on paper, should be among the worst in baseball entering the season.

• Same story with LAD/TOR, where Justin Wrobleski takes the hill for the Dodgers. He was solid in 66.2 relief IP LY, but so far this year he is being used as a spot starter in a six-man rotation that incorporates Ohtani. He was OK in his debut against CLE – 4 IP, 4 H, 3 ER, 1 BB, 2 K – all of the damage came in one inning. His velo is down 2 ticks vs. LY, which is unsurprising with the move to starter, so I’m not convinced that we’ll get any more than mediocre results as long as he is taking the bump to start games. Toronto ranked 4th in the league in OPS against LHP last season. Scherzer is still kicking at 41 YO – his K/BB remains solid, but as his velo/spin slowly falls off, he has gradually become more and more of an extreme fly ball pitcher. LY he had just a 27.1% GB rate and a hideous 2.01 HR/9, which had the ERA peeking over 5 despite good K/BB rates. Scherzer has always leaned towards fly balls and was somewhat vulnerable to HRs (for an elite pitcher anyway), but it didn’t matter in his prime when he was mowing down 11 or 12 guys per nine and giving up 1.1 HR/9. Now, he sits down 8.5 per nine and the FB rates and HR has slowly crept up over time. Scherzer is still a useful arm at 41 and there will be places to back him (big parks with favorable weather, etc.), and I don’t think he’ll give up a full 2 HRs/9 this year. But even if he’s at, say, 1.6-1.7, that immediately puts a hard ceiling on his run prevention. And needless to say, facing the Dodgers isn’t ideal for someone with his profile. Over here might be my favorite of the day.

• Wacha has had a steady, if unspectacular career, but his best seasons may have been his last two (3.3 and 3.6 WAR). He had virtually the same metrics each season – the advanced stuff tends to like him less than his actual production, but he keep out-performing it thanks to his lean toward soft contact. The BB rate has been under 2.5 and the HR rate under 1 each season despite a slight fly ball lean. He’s been steady and trustworthy, and I like his profile against a mostly punch-less Cleveland offense on a cold day (45 degrees). Bibee probably a little better than league average, and he was decent in the opener despite leaving early with a glute injury (cleared here). Went with 1st five Inn under here since Cleveland’s bullpen is a little taxed after a doubleheader against the Cubs on Sunday (especially closer Cade Smith, who threw 33 yesterday and 55 over the past three days). Would also lean KC for those reasons.

• Almost a pure weather play in Minnesota with two mostly trustworthy starters, with first pitch temps hovering right around freezing.

• Painter with a great debut for the Phils against Washington – 5.1 IP, 4 H, 1 R, 1 BB, 8 K. The ceiling is high, though the AAA results point to a guy that still has some work to do. Houser is an unsexy, but steady arm – after a poor 2023 and 2024, he picked up 1.5 MPH on the velo LY and managed a 3.31 ERA (metrics pointed to high 3s/low 4s). He has maintained that velocity gain heading into this season. He basically pitches to contact, but isn’t going to walk a ton to go with a slight GB lean. The driving force behind this bet is the offenses. San Francisco has been struggling mightily to start the season with just 26 runs in 10 games (16 of the runs has come in two of the games) – they have already been shutout 3x. Despite a 5-4 start, the Phils offense has been almost as bad, with just 30 runs in 9 games despite a facing the empty pitching staffs of Colorado and Washington. There has been little to get excited about outside of the 7 run 1st inning explosion in their opening game in Colorado, and the bottom 2/3rds of the lineup has been brutal in the season’s first week and a half.

Other quick notes:

• Wacky matchup between San Diego and German Marquez and Pittsburgh and Bubba Chandler. There is some optimism for Marquez since he escapes Coors after a decade (and some really good years early in his career). Unfortunately, there are signs that is may be too late – after missing almost all of 2023 and 2024, he was brutal last season in 126 innings. He was good in spring training to provide some optimism, but his season debut was horrendous – 3 IP, 8 H, 4 ER, 1 BB, 1 K against San Fran (who has basically done nothing else otherwise in this young season). Even worse, he managed a grand total of one swinging strike in 65 pitches. He’s a guy to keep an eye on. Bubba Chandler wants to be a one-pitch pitcher for now, throwing 75% 4-seam fastballs against Cincinnati in his season debut. The good news is he throws 99, the bad news is that he doesn’t know where it’s going. He went 4.1 IP, 0 H, 1 R, 6 BB, 6 K in that one. This article (https://blogs.fangraphs.com/all-gas-no-aim-bubba-chandler-is-amped/) shows how his rising fasty was super effective when he was ahead in the count, but very not effective when he was behind. Chandler actually didn’t walk many in 31 MLB innings LY, but he always had walk problems in the minors.

• Don’t have much on Houston’s Cody Bolton, but he had heavy walk problems once he hit the upper levels of the minors. For a Colorado pitcher, I actually like Ryan Feltner – he quietly had a solid 2024 (again, for a Coors tosser) before missing much of last season. He enters this season up 1.5 MPH on his FB velo in the early going – I would have liked Colorado in this one if I caught the higher number earlier on.